Think most of us have serious ‘Referendum Fatigue’…and clearly the run to wherever we are headed (and who really knows where that is?) is going to be choppy.
That all said, by Day 8 (2nd July 2016) post vote the following can be discerned:
i) Footsie is higher than before vote – though in part fuelled by promise of more cheap money from ‘BoE’. Economy slowing down. Base rate to remain on the floor through into 2020s, though with Japan having been there since the 90s, perhaps naive to think it would have ever been otherwise.
ii) Sterling is down by about circa 10% – pluses and minus from that. It is likely ‘a wash’ and of course currencies rise and fall over time anyhow. Not really something to get worked up by one way or the other;
iii) NZ has offered the Brits secondment of their civil service across trade negotiations because we have not done a trade contract since the 60s! Lets just hope we don’t bring in as external consultants the same lawyers and bankers who did the due diligence on BHS £1 sale – better for us to have a DoJ filing indictments;
iv) French have intimated that freedom of movement is up for discussion and our border remains in Calais. Highly unlikely that will change.
Europe is too important to us and UK too important to Europe for each side to fail to cut a deal. The UK will leave the EU and a sui generis relationship will be established.
The Government called the Referendum and to have failed to put in place any planning for what was a binary choice (IN/OUT) is ridiculous.
Still we basically know the two issues will be (a) access to Single Market [and] (b) Freedom of Movement. All else a side show. Trade off between ‘a’ and ‘b’ and again we surely will cut a deal. The tough part is getting there.
v) Bill introduced by US Senate within first week – UK Trade Continuity Act – the ‘back of the line’ intimated by POTUS (Obama Administration now in final lap anyhow) is unlikely;
vi) New PM and Government on its way – Osbourne will leave Treasury too.
New Government won’t be tied to an arbitrary target to clear the deficit which made no sense anyhow (remember the OBR ‘Roller Coaster’?).
The Cameron Tory Administration will have lasted just 16 months. Interestingly, the Coalition appears to have been a better and certainly more stable government than the truncated majority Cameron administration;
vii) Scotland – SNP likely bluffing. Their room for manoeuvre is significantly more limited than in 2014 though their desire for Independence higher. That’s the paradox – they want that which they will find significantly more challenging to have.
Doubt there will be a second Independence Referendum for remainder of this decade at least.
Westminster should consent to this only on the basis that it must follow any subsequent UK/EU deal.
Parallel with this, UK will move towards full federalism and Scotland will be allowed its own immigration quota. Meanwhile one point that is not mentioned, the nonsense of English, Welsh and NI students paying full Uni fees in Scotland, whilst all other EU nationals are exempt will come to an end.
vii) Corbyn implodes – Goes to prove that every cloud has its silver lining.
Upshot – We probably should all calm down.
Things will change (a bit) and United Kingdom will go on a (quite limited) different trajectory from where it was before 23rd June 2016.
There will be pluses and minuses from this and we won’t be able to ascertain whether the right call was made by our country for at least a decade.
The implications arising Brexit will take years to play out. For the present, we surely need to get on with it and not re-litigate a Referendum which is now done.