People who know me probably know that I am a bit of a politics geek.
So on the day that Trump has secured the GOP nomination, here’s my take.
On balance I think he will be POTUS 45 and not simply because Back to The Future 2 seemed to predict so much! Too many reasons to explore in detail but here are the headlines:
1) Living Standards have been stagnate for most Americans for two generations. ‘Main Street’ has been hammered. The status quo is not that appealing to them. In fact their view is that it sucks.
2) 9/11 – Since then US foreign policy has been a disaster. 15 years now, US money, lives, power and time has equalled so little achievement overseas on any metric. Meantime China just gets stronger. If Bush 43 was a calamity with the wars, Obama has just been insipid. When Trump says that the “US does not win any more” it has traction with much of the country- even if and perhaps because the NY Times condescends.
3) Hilary will be painted as a 3rd Term Obama (she has foolishly in part run as this) but without his qualities – “Crooked Hilary” will be repeated ad nauseam and lets see where we go with the email server thing?
4) Hilary is not a great stump candidate and a 3rd Obama Term = Status Quo. Good luck with that!
5) Trump is not wedded to any principles whatsoever. NONE. He will be Top Gun candidate – Just play on repeat…. USA USA USA/WIN WIN WIN – it will have traction. Believe it.
Will come down to the electoral maths (hello Ohio and watch NY) but folks its going to be way closer than the pundits say.
Oh and if I am wrong – throw this analysis back at me in November;-)